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KMID : 1001320100370020073
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Social Welfare Policy
2010 Volume.37 No. 2 p.73 ~ p.93
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The Long-term Economic Outcomes of TANF Leavers: Evidence from Wisconsin
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Kwon Hyeok-Chang
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Abstract
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The objective of this study is to examine long-term employment outcomes for welfare leavers after welfare reform, with particular attention to local labor markets. Previous studies examined the short-term labor market outcomes of TANF leavers, but, no study examines the long-term labor market outcomes of TANF leavers. This study also examines the relationship between labor market conditions and the employment outcomes of TANF leavers using administrative data from Wisconsin. First, by tracking TANF leavers over 7 years, this study shows that the employment rates of TANF leavers declined over time after their exits, implying that the positive short-term employment outcomes of welfare reform are not sustained over time. Second, this study investigates the effects of labor market conditions on the labor market outcomes of TANF leavers. Panel data analyses show that labor market conditions are significantly associated with labor market outcomes of leavers, controlling for the time trends. This study has an important policy implication in that the ‘work-first’ welfare reform might not achieve long-term success especially when the overall and local labor market conditions worsen.
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KEYWORD
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welfare reform, long-term employment, TANF leavers, local labor market onditions
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